Detroit 3 - Who Will Be The Last Standing?

Well, I think just about everyone agrees the Detroit 3 are facing the worst-case scenario. Even to the point where analysts are saying GM may need to file Chapter 11 even with a federal bailout.

So far, Ford seems to be in the best shape of all of them, relatively-speaking. Chrysler's fate is anyone's guess.

Once everything is said & done, what do you think the ultimate shakeout will be for Detroit?  

Personally, I think that it's just an excuse to get some free Goverment money! If they were really in trouble, they would lower their prices to stop there competitiors from selling their cars and boost their own sales, and as far as bankruptcy, The Government recomended that they do that! I think the problem is all the people that are getting extremely large salarys and not doing anything to actually earn them. So, if they got rid of all these high paying jobs like ceo's and basically anybody who makes over 60000 a year they would'nt have, ANY PROBLEMS...  

I think the one that does a new start up like GM did with Saturn,before they screwed it up,will come out the best.

Open or reopen factories out of the UAW reach and push the long back burnered technology that they always teased us with at car shows.

The first company that closes a site and brings those jobs back to the US will be the one with the best long term future. This may not push the stock price over the top but every worker and executive in the company will make a livable wage and the profit will pay for new design and technology in the company for years.



The only bone congress needs to give them is dump C.A.F.E.,it just creates a target for the manufactures to shoot for,let the engineers do their job and consumers will make or brake the companies.  

The presumption is that the Federal "bailout" is free money. It is not. It's a loan. The last time the Federal Government gave a Detroit automaker a loan (1978, Chrysler, $1.2 billion), The government got everything back (by 1983), plus an additional $300 million.  

I'm certainly not an expert, but there are a couple of points regarding the situation that I feel are worth keeping in mind -

First, it's sad in a way, but I don't think that Detroit can afford the UAW any more - period.  When all of their competitors are building cars with labor costs that are 40% (or often, much less) of what the Big 3 are paying, well, it doesn't take a quantum physicist to forecast the long-term trends... If bankruptcy is what it takes to lift this albatross from Detroit's neck, well, I guess it's time to call the lawyers.
(NOTE: I'm not completely against unions, hell, my job was sent overseas in '08, but the Big 3 can't run a competitive race while carrying 50% more weight either...)

Second, the other major cost factor is regulation.  This is probably less of an issue than labor costs just because any competitors have to build to the same regulations also, although the trend of many laws (CAFE being just one of the more-egregious examples) tends to favor vehicles with smaller engines (which is the strong suit of the Big 3's competitors).  Many laws are much-needed & entirely worthwhile, but how much do you think could be shaved from the price of an average car if we didn't have some of the more pointless & redundant regs on the books?

Bottom line?  I think that GM & Ford will certainly survive.  Chrysler?  As a "born & bred" MoPar guy, it would kill me to see it go under, but I just have no idea what's going to happen.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed & saying my prayers...  

Non union American workers in Toyota plants really don't earn a whole lot less than their union brothers up north.  tho, yes, the unions do from time to time do things just to justify their existance.  BUT, the  Big3 also agree to the demands, like put in 30 yrs and then get bennies for life.  there are some former GM employees who earn more b/c of longevity, than they did when actually working there...

A second problem really is, paying for health care.  Its why GM plants are in Canada across the lake.  GM used to be called a health care company that sells cars.  Then they became a health care company that sells loans, and hands out cars.  Ford controls their financing branch, while GMAC is separate.   But juggling home mortgages that were below the prime, sure didn't help GMAC, so being able to tell parent GM, "hands off that cash under the mattress!" may have helped them slightly.

As for safety regs....I swear, they make humans take MORE risks.  If you drive a car without ABS in the rain as your daily driver, then switch to a car with ABS, you'll do what I do..take more risks.  The more leeway you get, the more you take.  humans are just geared towards wanting more, its why we don't live in caves with animal pelts on our backs eating raw meat.

And some of it, is not making what we need, but advertising to make us want it.  there was a time not too long ago, where no one wanted a big vehicle.  Minivans were fine, until the Japanese realized they could build one on a car chassis, too.  Then we got advertising telling us to buy big trucks--something the Japanese couldn't build at the time.  Who wanted the uncomfortable ride before?  SUVs? Who built those besides the Chevy Suburban? Now Cadillac and Lincoln sell trucks....huh? WTF.  If it wasn't for advertising, would people really need a luxury truck to do the speedlimit down the highway?